ÜNLÜ & Co Publishes Q3 2025 Financial Expectations Report

ÜNLÜ & Co’s Third Quarter 2025 Financial Expectations Report presents a strong outlook with an expected net profit of TL 91 billion in the banking sector, while noting that non-financial companies continue to maintain a cautious stance in line with financial data and macroeconomic indicators.

Türkiye’s leading investment services and asset management group, ÜNLÜ & Co, has released its report outlining profit expectations for the third quarter of 2025. Featuring sector-based analyses for the period, the report highlights the strong performance of banks in particular. It emphasizes that a cautious trend continues across sectors and that investors are entering a period in which selectivity is essential.

Commenting on the report, Erol Danış, Head of Research at ÜNLÜ & Co, stated that companies generating foreign currency–denominated revenues, those focused on exports, or those successful in cost management have stood out positively on a quarterly basis.

“In banking, the improvement in the loan-to-deposit spread is among the key factors supporting profitability. In non-financial companies, despite high financing costs, weak domestic demand, and slowing external markets, a resilient outlook is evident in certain sub-sectors. At a time when differences in sectoral profitability have become so pronounced, it is critically important for investors to act based on company-specific performance, supported by data-driven and in-depth analysis. I believe this approach will also enable timely identification of potential opportunities offered by differentiating sectors and companies,” he said.

TL 91 Billion Net Profit Expected in Banking
According to the report, the total third-quarter net profit of banks covered by the research universe is projected at TL 91 billion, representing a 64% year-on-year increase and a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase. Driven by the improvement in the TL loan-to-deposit spread, the net interest margin is expected to widen by 45 basis points. Within the banking sector, Halkbank, Yapı Kredi, and Akbank stand out.

Cautious Outlook Continues for Non-Financial Companies
The outlook for non-financial companies in the third quarter of the year presents a balanced yet cautiously interpreted picture. Despite an expected 11% year-on-year decline in net profit, a 40% quarter-on-quarter increase signals a notable recovery. While high financing costs and weak domestic demand continue to exert pressure, the overall picture indicates that companies are able to improve operational efficiency on a periodic basis.

According to ÜNLÜ & Co’s assessment, among non-financial companies, those that are able to control costs and are positioned in relatively more resilient sectors such as energy and healthcare stand out. However, weak domestic consumption, slowing export markets, and rising borrowing costs remain among the key factors continuing to pressure profitability in the non-financial segment.

Sector-Specific Dynamics
The report reveals notable performance divergences across sectors. Tüpraş stands out with high refinery margins and strong capacity utilization. Aygaz delivers solid performance supported by resilient LPG margins and contributions from its subsidiaries. Hitit, with double-digit USD-based growth, and MLP Sağlık, with effective cost management, are among the companies that have positively differentiated. The retail sector is supported by increasing basket sizes and wage stability. Conversely, operational pressures persist in production-heavy sectors such as Petkim and Erdemir. In the aviation sector, companies such as Turkish Airlines (THY) and Pegasus are expected to experience margin contraction due to rising costs and pressure on ticket prices.